Water FractalTier 2
at 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.7%
avg ELO -4.7 per match
expected value
46.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1293
· median 1293
· range 1293–1293
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1142
Q3 1298
1389
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.2% | +10.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
